Tag: economics

  • Eco-fascism: Humanity is Not The Problem, Neoliberalism Is

    Eco-fascism: Humanity is Not The Problem, Neoliberalism Is

    The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has not only revealed the inherent, exploitative economic failures of an unfettered free market, but also, the environmental failures of capitalism as decreased fossil-fuel activity has cleared the air pollution in Asia, and canals in Italy. Yet there has been a rising online sentiment pinning global environmental deterioration on to inherent human nature –when the global temperatures were normal in a pre-industrial era. ‘Mother nature is waking up, humans are the virus,’ pseudo-woke Twitter users share, amassing hundreds of thousands of likes and engagement.The idea that humans are a virus that can not coexist with nature absolves neoliberalism of its decades of market failures, it absolves the 100 companies responsible for 71% of global emissions of their blame for global warming. Native Americans have conserved and coexisted nature for thousands of years. The problem is not humanity, it’s neoliberalism, which through deregulation and resistance against a transition towards a 70-85% renewable system, demands the perpetuation of an economy run on fossil fuels. The environment has been the sacrificial lamb of neoliberalism since the 19th century — forgoing environmental health in favor of industrial progress.

    Environmental History: Normal CO2 Levels in The Pre-Industrial Era 

    The nihilist, defeatist blaming of environmental deterioration on “humanity” is an intellectually lazy cop-out. It’s a way to absolve neoliberalism of its responsibility in creating the environmental crisis and absolve ourselves of the responsibility of transforming the global energy industry. Producing fossil fuel emissions isn’t a natural trait of humanity — it’s a trait of capitalism, deregulation, and the fossil fuel industry. There is another way. To simply throw our hands in the air and declare, “oh well, humans are evil destructors,” is the easy and dishonest option. It is ecofascism.

    Environmental history shows that humans — who have lived on the planet for 200,000 years — only managed to create a global warming crisis in the last 150 years with the advent of industrial capitalism. How has human activity harmed the environment? The most pressing environmental problems of our time—such as deforestation, water pollution, and global warming—are the results of human activities.

    The pre-industrial climate is proof that environmental destruction is not a feature of humanity, but rather, a feature of post-industrial neoliberalism. Human interaction with nature since the post-revolutionary age of fossil fuels from 1800-present, has been primarily destructive. The Industrial Revolution marked the start of the gradual rise in CO2 emissions. Studies have found that climate change signs first appeared as early as the 1830s.

    Human influence aside, internal and external forces such as internal heat transfer within the Earth, volcanic eruptions, and variability in the amount of energy emitted by the Sun cause the climate to vary. Scientists, taking this into account, define the pre-industrial baseline relative to 1850-1900. This is why climate accords like the Paris Agreement seek to limit the global average temperature to below 2℃ above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels.

    Human activities are estimated to have caused approximately 1.0°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, and the IPCC forecasts that we will reach the 1.5°C threshold between 2030 and 2052 because we will not meet the net-zero CO2 emissions goal by 2050 by dropping 45% from the 2010 levels by 2030. To achieve this renewable energy would need to supply 70-85% of electricity use by 2050, but we will only reach a 31% of world electricity market share by 2040 despite  400% growth.

    So no, humans are not the problem. Fossil fuels and bad policies are.

    Environmental History:  Native Americans’ Conservation Practices

    Ecofascists forget that post-industrial environmental destruction is not an inherent human trait. 

    Native Americans have managed to thrive off, and conserve the natural environment for thousands of years because their culture dictates so. Native Americans view themselves as cohabitants with the natural world, not a distinct wilderness to be conquered and paved over as European settlers did. Even a U.N.-backed report found that Native Americans’ lands are degrading less quickly than in other areas.

    Native Americans continue contributing to biodiversity conservation and ecosystem health.Their cultural beliefs have been long observed by sociologists like Durkheim who saw how Aborigines’ lifestyles were intimately connected to nature (Durkheim 1915). While they did not actually consider nature to be divine, cultural beliefs such as their totems (sacred animal symbols), stood for the clan which all protected the environment.

    While global lumber companies see the Amazon rainforest as a profitable commodity to be harvested, environmentalists see the world’s most biodiverse sanctuary to be left untouched, and indigenous tribes see a home that enables their physical being. Environmentalism and unfettered capitalism are mutually exclusive.

    It was then that ecological imperialism was brought to the Americas to reap destruction, then exacerbated with Manifest Destiny as the frontier kept being pushed west. Europeans committed wanton environmental destruction, slaughtered wildlife, burned forests, and tamed the wilderness for the sake of “civilization.” This is because European settlers came from individualist, capitalist culture that valued individual wealth that took the biblical admonition to exert dominion over the earth as one of destruction. The term “wilderness,” was often used by English settlers to describe forests. Thus, with the founding of the first European settlement, Jamestown, 75% of forests have been destroyed since 1600.

    It was only with the rise of modern capitalism with the Industrial Revolution and transition away from an agricultural economy, was it that forests were destroyed for lumber, mountains leveled for coal mining, holes punctured to extract oil, rfields smothered in cement, and smokestacks blacken the skies. The new technology was harnessed to transform natural resources into social goods for economic profit. One seeks destruction for profit, the other protection for the future of the planet.

    Capitalism stole 1.5 billion acres of natural land from Native Americans since 1784 and turned it into an urban, strip mall, consumerist hellscape — or the modern industrial economy. This is why Indigenous people still fight to protect their sacred land from further colonization at the forces of oil pipelines, logging, and more.

    Neoliberalism Is The Problem, Not Human Nature

    Wow… Earth is recovering

    – Air pollution is slowing down
    – Water pollution is clearing up
    – Natural wildlife returning home

    Coronavirus is Earth’s vaccine

    We’re the virus— Tom (@ThomasSchuIz) March 17, 2020

    One hundred corporations are responsible for 71% of all global greenhouse gas emissions yet ecofascist drivel regularly garners 200,000+ likes on Twitter. This is your brain on wokeism. It’s simple, easy, and it absolves neoliberalism and our ability to usher in a renewable age of all responsibility. When we don’t identify capitalism as the problem we ignore solutions.

    Neoliberalism fuels global warming, not inherent human nature. Neoliberalism is a liberal political ideology favoring free-market, laissez-faire capitalism, that was popularized in the 1970s. It’s reaped destruction through ecological imperialism all around the globe. It results in natural state-owned resources being commoditized and privatized like in Peru. Neoliberalism is an ideological force which has seized natural resources and led to deforestation in pursuit of development and modern infrastructure.

    Neoliberalism has brought us deregulation, and the iron triangle of corporatist fossil fuel lobbying that’s bringing the planet to its death bed. 

    When we found out about climate change 30 years ago, we didn’t tax fossil fuels to reduce consumption, we didn’t tax or cap carbon emissions, and the government didn’t invest heavily in renewable energy or force companies to do so. In fact, we knew about it since 1958 when chemist Charles David Keeling found that each year evidenced a greater concentration of CO2 than the last, and it corresponded with global increases in the burning of fossil fuels. In the pre-industrial era, the concentration of atmospheric CO2 held steady thousands of years but over the last 50 years it has increased by 20%.

    Free market capitalism will never control negative externalities of the fossil fuel industry — that is the government’s job. Instead, this administration has engaged in the opposite approach — taking 142 climate deregulation steps so far. Just today, in midst of a pandemic, the EPA and NHTSA finalized a rule rolling back vehicle greenhouse gas emissions and corporate fuel economy standards. We’ve not only withdrawn from the moderate Paris Climate Accord but also canceled a requirement for oil and gas companies to report methane emissions, partially repealed an Obama-era rule limiting methane emissions on public lands, replaced the Clean Power Plan, and more.

    How can you fight a threat without naming it? Neoliberalism. Deregulation. Fossil fuels. Rampant laissez-faire capitalism. Those are the problems, not inherent human nature. Environmental breakdown is also a fundamental feature not a ‘bug’ of capitalism.

    1.5°C warming of the globe poses the biggest existential threat facing our growing population today, yet baseline forecasts show despite many “plastic straw bans,” climate protest and global policy inaction — we won’t cause an upheaval of the fossil-fuel energy system to prevent this by 2050. Coastal cities will flood, oceans will acidify, crop yields will plummet and we’ll fail to meet the 70% rise in food demand by 2050.

    We need to meet a 27% increase in global energy demand by 2040 while providing electricity access in developing nations where 1 billion lack electricity and face barriers to renewable energy attainment. On our current baseline trajectory, renewables will only make up 31% of the energy mix by 2040, as oil and gas will continue to supply over 50% of energy demand. 

    Human activities are estimated to have caused approximately 1.0°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, and the IPCC forecasts that we will reach the 1.5°C threshold between 2030 and 2052 because we will not meet the net-zero CO2 emissions goal by 2050 by dropping 45% from the 2010 levels by 2030.

    To achieve this renewable energy would need to supply 70-85% of electricity use by 2050, but we will only reach 31% of world electricity market share by 2040 despite 400% growth. As the world population reaches 9 billion by 2040, we will face a global energy and climate crisis as global energy demand increases 27%, 25% in developing nations, 1 billion continue to lack electricity access, and renewables compose only 31% of the energy mix. This will occur while fossil fuels will continue to reign  at over 50% of energy demand as we will witness a 41% increase in gas demand.

    Capitalism has rapidly destroyed the global climate in just the last 200 years because it demands the commoditization and destruction of natural resources for economy profit, thereby continuing its reign of imperialist ecological terrorism. Embracing ecofascism and defeatism does nothing but secure future generations’ struggle against a wilderness that won’t be dominated any longer. We need a Green New Deal with at least 70-85% renewable energy.

  • Coronavirus Exposes the Failings of American Capitalism

    Coronavirus Exposes the Failings of American Capitalism

    “We are only as safe as the least insured person in America,” Bernie Sanders, in one tweet, succinctly captured the individualist United States’ failed safety net amidst a coronavirus pandemic with now 10,502 cases occurring while 27 million are uninsured and the working-class grocers, delivery drivers and caretakers are on the front-lines as emergency workers — without a  living wage. It turns out that the working-class is what keeps the global economy running, and while thousands of mass layoffs or unpaid leaves are taking place, corporations are begging for bailouts, asking employees to share their sick leave hours, and corporations are profiting off the global crisis. Corporations are doubling the price of potential coronavirus treatment chloroquine, and Wall Street is pressuring healthcare firms to hike up prices. The USDA is also fighting to purge food stamps recipients despite the pandemic. Capitalism and unfettered corporate greed is literally endangering millions of lives.

     This crisis makes Bernie Sanders’ platform and 50 year long fight for economic justice seem moderate. The COVD-19 pandemic has exposed the corporate greed of crony capitalism and failings of a privatized healthcare system with a middle-man insurance industry that leaves 27 million uninsured and 500,000 bankrupt yearly, all while ranking 37th in healthcare globally.

    “Every worker deserves a living wage, paid leave, health care, and a union—at all times, not just during a national crisis.” – Bernie Sanders

    Coronavirus has exposed the corporate rot and greed of this nation and the government isn’t doing enough to help families struggling without employment and healthcare. While businesses beg for bailouts after just a few weeks with no profits, it is the working-class — who are somehow supposed to have 3-6 months of savings — who need a New Deal to survive. Are the 27 million uninsured, thousands laid off, thousands more put on unpaid leave because of the deliberate destruction of our unions expected to deal with a crisis that could be bigger than the Great Depression with the United States’ weak safety net?

    The crisis has led to bipartisan calls for a temporary establishment for the socialized programs progressives have been fighting for such as Medicare for All, paid sick leave, internet as a utility, and more. The COVD-19 pandemic has made presidential candidate Senator Bernie Sanders’ progressive platform look moderate. We’re in the middle of a global pandemic, Americans — whose wages have stagnated as inflation has risen 657% in the past 50 years  don’t have healthcare, live paycheck to paycheck, and those 40% who don’t have $400 in savings — can’t pay $1,600 for COVD-19 testing alone.

    Progressives were right about everything. They were right about universal healthcare, unions, corporate greed and the working-class holding the true economic power that keeps nations running — and deserving fair pay for it. We can’t survive without the “proletariat.”

    The Government’s Failed Response

    President Trump’s 8 week delayed and inadequate coronavirus response has already cost 174 lives. He fired the entire pandemic response team in 2018 and called in a hoax at a campaign rally in January this year. Then he  insisted that his January 31st decision to restrict travel from China had contained the outbreak. By February 29, officials reported the first coronavirus  death in the U.S. The bill that the House passed this week only guarantees paid coronavirus sick leave to around 20% of American workers and they’re still debating over sending $1,000 to every U.S. household for a pandemic that could last up to 18 months (the time it could take for a vaccine to be produced.)

    Privatized Healthcare Failing

    The free market has failed the health, ability to sustain a living, and education of Americans. The United States privatized, most expensive healthcare system per capita — ranking 37th globally is facing shortages. We received supplies from Italy as healthcare workers face shortages of masks, swabs, and they lack respirators to treat this epidemic fully.

    Many are calling for temporary Medicare for All, but amid such a crisis causing layoffs and affecting families nationwide, tying employment to the ability to get treatment illnesses without going bankrupt is finally starting to seem insane. The average cost of a hospitalization for COVID-19 could top $20,000 someone with insurance, with out-of-pocket costs of at least $1,300. We must permanently expand coverage to all Americans with a small tax hike and increase production capacities to address this crisis. Hundreds of thousands of people every year deserve treatment for other illnesses regardless of costs too. People don’t deserve to die rationing insulin.

    A Yale study concluded that Medicare for All would save 68,000 lives a year, and $450 billion annually. Americans are paying more per capita and getting less through a middle-man insurance profiting off illness, that shouldn’t exist.

    Eroded Safety Net

    The pandemic has also exposed how eroded our safety net is with the government actively robbing the most unequal developed nation on earth of benefits. Amidst a pandemic, the USDA is fighting to purge food stamps recipients.  With healthcare the number one cause of bankruptcy in the wealthiest country on earth (with 78% already insured), the oligarchy’s stranglehold on the working-class now stronger than ever, with stagnant wages that haven’t kept up with the 657% rise in inflation the past 50 years despite a doubling in productivity, and a $1.6 trillion student debt crisis that stagnates economic growth, only a progressive agenda can address these key issues.

    Income inequality is at an all time high since the Census Bureau began tracking it, yet we perpetuate the “bootstraps” notion that every hard-working person and child has equality of opportunity — an equal chance to succeed in life.  Despite being the wealthiest country on earth, and worker productivity doubling, 12.3% of families continue living in poverty, and 40 million go hungry.

    The richest 10% of U.S. households represented 70% of all U.S. wealth in 2018, and the top 1% hold 42.5% of national wealth, a far greater share than in other OECD countries. In no other industrialized nation does the wealthiest 1% own more than 28% of their country’s wealth.  Economic inequality in the U.S. ranks higher than in any other wealthy, democratic country, and it has the most poor individuals than any other similar developed nations. Inequality has drastically increased since the 1960s were the top 10 percent of families owned around one-third of the national income, and the top 1 percent received less than 10% of all income . The Gini Index shows that the level of inequality in the United States is almost twice as much as in Sweden and a third more than most other European countries.

    Unions Are Vital to The Workers On the Frontline Who Have Always Had the Economic Power 

    While thousands are being laid off or put on unpaid leave indefinitely amid a pandemic, the importance of unions becomes even more pertinent as families struggle for their livelihood. The Whole Foods CEO told employees who are not sick should “donate” their vacation time to sick employees. Unions are vital to the working and middle-class who drive economic stimulus in this country. Union workers are more likely to have paid sick days and health insurance, and be paid fair wages.

    Economic inequality has increased since the 1960s due to technology, decline of manufacturing, globalization, and government policies that have not grown the wealth of the middle-class. Because of this, people without access to the “college wage premium” have seen their earnings decline in this technology age with less manufacturing jobs. 

    Deindustrialization has decreased these well-paying jobs for many Americans and only low-wage jobs have been growing for those who are non-college educated.  The stagnated minimum wage has exacerbated this income inequality as the rich continue to reap a higher share of profits produced by the workers.

    It is those low-wage workers which are now being classified as emergency workers in Vermont and Minnesota who keep the economy running. Now people who derided working-class jobs as “low-skilled” ones undeserving of a living wage, know who are the essential workers. It is the care workers, the grocery clerks, the cleaners, the delivery drivers. They are the teachers, the nurses, the doctors, the transport workers. Not the 1%, not the traders, not the hedge fund managers.

    All workers deserve a living wage and paid sick leave. If the minimum wage kept pace with the 657% rise in inflation & 176% rise in productivity over the past 50 years, it would be $21.72.It peaked in 1968 at $11.18  when a manufacturing job bought you a house for $26,600.00. These workers need a $15.00 min wage now — they needed it years ago.

    Corporate Greed Amidst Crisis

    The Trump administration turned down WHO’s test kits to help his son-in-law Kushner’s company make a profit.

    Wall Street is pressuring healthcare firms to increase prices over the coronavirus crisis. Audio  was obtained of bankers asking drug companies and firms supplying N95 masks & ventilators, to figure out how to profit from the COVID-19 emergency.

    US drugmaker doubled price of potential coronavirus treatment, chloroquine, in January, as the outbreak spread in China.

    While the outbreak spread, Senate Intel chair Richard Burr, sold off up to $1.6 million in stock one week before the market fell. His committee was receiving daily briefings.

    Instead of helping American workers, the system wants to bail out airlines and other industries. Airlines like American blew cash on stock buybacks instead of reserving for a future crisis like working-class Americans are told to do.

    A Second New Deal

    President Franklin Delano Roosevelt didn’t just lift the United States out of the Depression — he altered the broken economic and political system to prevent it from happening again and championed the working-class. We have dismantled the very protections he set in place so corporations could reap higher profits and the New Deal’s safety net has withered away as a result. America’s individualist culture has failed us in pursuit of higher corporate profit.

    We must demand that Congress pass a bill with paid sick leave, provide emergency unemployment assistance of $2,000 a month per person as Senator Sanders proposed, freeze evictions for all (not just public housing), and classify grocery workers as emergency workers.

    We must enact Medicare for All in the long term so that healthcare — the right to life — is no longer tied to employment and the middle-man profiteering insurance industry which leaves 27 million unable to afford coverage and 500,000 bankrupt. This is a moral awakening and call we must answer.

  • The Productivity-Inflation-Wage Gap and the Effects of a $15.00 Wage Floor

    The Productivity-Inflation-Wage Gap and the Effects of a $15.00 Wage Floor

    If the federal minimum wage had kept up with the 657% increase in inflation and 176% rise in worker productivity  over the past 50 years, it would be $21.72. It peaked in 1968 at $11.18  when the cost of a four-year public university was $329.00, according to National Center for Education Statistics, a manufacturing job bought you a house for $26,600.00, and the cost of living was 657% lower. Net productivity was 77.1% in 1968 while it stood at a record 252.9% in 2018. Economic research has overwhelmingly concluded that a gradual increase to a $15.00 minimum wage would not increase the price level or the unemployment rate. In fact, it would stimulate economic growth through increased consumer demand, business investment and job growth. At a time when income inequality has hit an all time., with 40 million Americans facing hunger, a shocking number of homeless people, and inability of hard-working Americans to achieve socioeconomic advancement in part in the wealthiest country on earth, it’s time to stop the billionaire class from stealing profits from the working-class who has doubled their productivity since the late 1960s. Economists agree that a federal minimum wage increase to $15.00 by 2024 would not cause a rise in the price level or mass job losses. Instead, the spillover effects would cause a strong demand-side stimulus to the economy through an increase in disposable income to the demographic with the highest MPC, and increase middle-wages as well.

    Productivity and the Cost of Living Has Skyrocketed But Wages Have Stagnated

    Today’s $7.25 minimum wage is 29% less their counterparts made 50 years ago adjusted for inflation despite the fact that productivity has doubled since the late 1960s — CEO’s are literally stealing profit from American workers. The United States has one of the lowest minimum wages of any industrialize democracy in the world. The adjusted value of minimum wage peaked in 1968 at $11.18.  According to The Economic Policy Institute , the inflation-adjusted minimum wage has fallen far behind the growth of the economy compared to 50 years ago, when they were virtually equal.

    Economic Inequality

    Income inequality is at an all time high since the Census Bureau began tracking it, yet we perpetuate the “bootstraps” notion that every hard-working person and child has equality of opportunity — an equal chance to succeed in life.  Despite being the wealthiest country on earth, and worker productivity doubling, 12.3% of families continue living in poverty, and 40 million go hungry.

    The richest 10% of U.S. households represented 70% of all U.S. wealth in 2018, and the top 1% hold 42.5% of national wealth, a far greater share than in other OECD countries. In no other industrialized nation does the wealthiest 1% own more than 28% of their country’s wealth.  Economic inequality in the U.S. ranks higher than in any other wealthy, democratic country, and it has the most poor individuals than any other similar developed nations. Inequality has drastically increased since the 1960s were the top 10 percent of families owned around one-third of the national income, and the top 1 percent received less than 10% of all income . The Gini Index shows that the level of inequality in the United States is almost twice as much as in Sweden and a third more than most other European countries.

    Economic inequality has increased since the 1960s due to technology, decline of manufacturing, globalization, and government policies that have not grown the wealth of the middle-class. People without access to the “college wage premium” have seen their earnings decline in this technology age with less manufacturing jobs.  Deindustrialization has decreased these well-paying jobs for many Americans and only low-wage jobs have been growing for those who are non-college educated. The stagnated minimum wage has exacerbated this income inequality as the rich continue to reap a higher share of profits produced by the workers.

    Spillover Benefits of a $15 min wage: Demand-side Economic Growth, Middle-Wage Increases, and Reduced Taxpyaer Spending on Assistance Programs

    According to the Economic Policy Institute, $15 minimum wage by 2024 would result in $121 billion in higher wages for almost 41 million low-wage workers thereby providing a positive multiplier effect to the economy through the raise in disposable income of the demographic with the highest MPC. This demographic would stimulate consumer demand, business activity, and job growth. The increase would be indexed to growth in median wages, thereby securing that the wage floor keeps pace with growth of middle-wage workers in the future. 

    A $15.00 minimum wage would directly affect 28.1 million workers by 2024 and another 11.6 million workers whose wages are just above the new minimum wage through “spillover” effects as employers adjust their scales.

    Liberal economists agree that a  minimum wage raise will stimulate the economy and reduce taxpayer spending on assistance programs.

    The Price Level Would Not Rise

    Two years after Seattle raised its minimum wage to $15.00, a study found no significant evidence of price level increases associated with the minimum wage law.

    The researchers analyzed prices for 106 food articles from six supermarket chain stores in Seattle and in six of the same-chain stores in King County unaffected by the ordinance. The price check occurred at four time points: one month pre, one month post, one year post, and two years post ordinance implementation.

    Effects in Employment: Modest Increases — No Job Loses

    Although some conservatives estimate that raising the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2024 would put 1.3 million Americans out of work (CBO), minimum wage hikes in states and cities in recent years give us actual quantitative data on the effects of wage floor increases

    Economics at UCLA  examined the effect of the statewide minimum wage rise in California from $6.75 in 2006 to $10.50 in 2017 (slated to hit $15 in 2022), and focused on the restaurant industry. They estimated that, “the increments in the minimum wage..were estimated to increase earnings in limited service restaurants slightly more than 10% but reduced employment by about 12%.” And that the rise up to $10.50 by 2017 raised earnings in those restaurants by another 20%, but reduced employment by another 10%..

    Polar opposite to these findings, a U.C. Berkeley study looked at the effects of city-level minimum wage hikes in recent years. It compared the cities of Chicago, Los Angeles, Oakland, San Francisco, San Jose, Seattle and Washington, to economically-comparable nearby ones. The paper found that wages were up while changes to employment were minimal: “We find significantly positive effects on wages and small effects on employment, consistent with many previous studies.”

    Furthermore, a high-profile paper by David Card and Alan Krueger proved what many economists have agreed on — modest increases to wage minimums don’t cause huge job losses. “Many studies have found little or no effect of minimum wages on employment, but many others have found substantial reductions in employment (CBO).”

  • Climate Change Mitigation and The Future of Energy by 2040

    Climate Change Mitigation and The Future of Energy by 2040

    Complete climate change mitigation is an alternative forecast that overlooks carbon-reduction solutions such as sequestration and nanotechnology that will be necessary to meet a 27% increase in global energy demand, provide electricity access in developing nations where 1 billion lack electricity and face barriers to renewable energy attainment. On our current baseline trajectory, renewables will only make up 31% of the energy mix by 2040, as oil and gas will continue to supply over 50% of energy demand. Therefore, it’s imperative that we implement the carbon-reduction technologies often ignored in the hard-line “Green New Deal” conversation, in conjunction with renewable energy in countries without economic and political barriers.

    Effects of a 1.5°C Increase in Global Temperature

    A 1.5°C warming of the globe poses the biggest existential threat facing our growing population today, yet baseline forecasts show despite many “plastic straw bans,” climate protest and global policy inaction — we won’t cause an upheaval of the fossil-fuel energy system to prevent this by 2050. Coastal cities will flood, oceans will acidify, crop yields will plummet and we’ll fail to meet the 70% rise in food demand by 2050. Human activities are estimated to have caused approximately 1.0°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, and the IPCC forecasts that we will reach the 1.5°C threshold between 2030 and 2052 because we will not meet the net-zero CO2 emissions goal by 2050 by dropping 45% from the 2010 levels by 2030. To achieve this renewable energy would need to supply 70-85% of electricity use by 2050, but we will only reach a 31% of world electricity market share by 2040 despite  400% growth.

    Moreover, our oceans absorb about 30% of CO2 and preventing acidification. When it mixes with water it becomes carbonic acid by releasing H+ ions which makes the ocean increasingly acidic over time. If average emissions continue at the current rate the average pH of the ocean will drop from 8.2 to 7.8 by 2094. This will impact many species of marine life such as pteropods, corals, and other hard-shelled species such as phytoplankton which absorb CO2 and can destroy the food chain if they go extinct. Oceans will eventually become highly acidic and they will be able to hold less CO2 and species will become extinct.

    As the world population reaches 9 billion by 2040, we will face a global energy and climate crisis as global energy demand increases 27%, 25% in developing nations, 1 billion continue to lack electricity access, and renewables compose only 31% of the energy mix. This will occur while fossil fuels will continue to reign  at over 50% of energy demand as we will witness a  41%  increase in gas demand. Oil demand will reach 106 million BPD (IEA), oil consumption 225 quadrillion British thermal units, and natural gas 180 units (EIA). This increased demand coupled with a slow renewable energy implementation will cause an energy conundrum on how to supply it under carbon-dioxide constraints. Per the IEA’s 2019 World Energy Outlook, demand will rise 1.3% each for the next 20 years and will exacerbate greenhouse emission levels and will climb by 6% through 2040. Alternative forecasts based on ambitious climate policy action outlined by Green New Deal style have no current plan going forth the next 20 years. 

    Fossil Fuel Emission Reduction and Carbon Sequestration

    This increased fossil fuel demand in a future world populated by 9 billion where people still lack access implores us to address climate change with action and not become blind-sided by the long-term goal of a renewable energy system transformation; but to instead invest in mitigating CO2-reduction technologies. Carbon-dioxide emissions account for 80% of all emissions, and CO2 is the primary greenhouse gas produced by the burning of fossil fuels that has steadily increased since the late 1950s. but they can be drastically reduced through carbon-capturing technology such as sequestration and nanotechnology. The carbon-dioxide sequestration process injects injects carbon captured from coal plants into the earth. However, this effect is limited since its mainly been used in laboratories in small quantities.

    According to the baseline trends, oil and natural gas will continue supplying over 50% of energy demand in 2040, as global demand grows 27%, while around 1 billion people will lack access to electricity. Oil consumption will reach 225 quadrillion British thermal units in 2040 (up from 200), and natural gas consumption will reach 180 units according to the EIA (up from 130).  The price of crude oil will rise from $52 to $112 per barrel per the Global Energy Institute. Meeting demand in a cost-efficient way is the basis of nanotech applications. Based on the nanotechnology industry’s rapid growth the past two decades and increasing NNI budget ($343.1 million in 2019), the industry will continue to witness steady growth. Oil companies like Shell and BP are working with research institutions to implement these technologies in their production. 

    Energy demand will increase by 27% by 2040 according to the EIA3. Meeting this demand under the world’s shrinking fossil-fuel supply without increasing environmental degradation is a key issue of this century.  Scientists estimate we will have to lower carbon-dioxide emissions by as much as 80% by 2050 4 to prevent a further increase in global temperatures. It is both economically and existentially pivotal to implement renewable energy resources to meet this increased consumption. Achieving this while not limiting development in developing countries creates a conundrum that can be ameliorated by CO2 emission reduction and renewable energy.

    Nanotechnology 

    One solution to meeting this 27% increase in energy demand under CO2 constraints in a baseline 2040 future with only 31% renewables is nanotechnology. Nanotechnology solutions such as nanoparticle enhanced oil recovery, engineered porous minerals, nanotubes, and nano-computerised tomography to explore oil reservoirs can maximize efficiency and lower costs to meet this demand. Production can be increased in an environmentally cleaner way through the employment of nanomaterials for environmental remediation of contaminated sites and groundwater, nanosensors can detect greenhouse gas emission levels, and  carbon capture nanoscale membranes can trap exhaust from energy production sites such as power plants. 

    Growing investment in nanotechnology has already decreased fossil fuel emissions and the NNI budget has increased vastly to $343.1 million in 2019. Oil companies like Shell and BP now implement nanotechnology in their energy production through the use of nanomaterials, carbon-capturing nanomembranes, and nanocatalysts. Oil production has not peaked thanks to EOR through nanotechnology applications. This has all caused the carbon-dioxide emission rates to fall substantially. Big companies like CO2 solutions are influential stakeholders that seek to limit greenhouse gases through carbon-capture technologies that remove exhaust from our power plants.

    Not only does nanotechnology reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but it helps meet the 27% increase in energy demand at a time when peak oil production looms on our horizon. The possibility of peak oil production has frightened many for decades, but an estimate by the EIA believes that reaching peak oil as soon as 2022 is a possibility. When it would occur, production would decline at 3% per year while demand would increase by 3% per year. The Low Oil Resource also projects tight oil production until 2022 then a decline until 2050. Nanotechnology, and its efficient applications in enhanced oil recovery can help prevent situations of low oil supply. Nanoparticles can maximize extraction by reporting what paths oil takes below ground form the injection well to the production well.

    Nanotechnology can prevent this dismal alternative forecast, and help meet the future energy demand reliant on fossil fuels in 2040 in an efficient, cost-effective manner that emits less pollutants, cleans up organic chemicals from groundwater, and VOCs from air through nanomaterial, nanomembranes, and nanocatalyst applications. Developments in nanotechnology in the gas and oil industry lower CO2 emissions through EOR, the production of  nano-tubesnano-sensors for air pollution monitoring and carbon-capture nanoscale membranes, thereby reducing the negative environmental impact of fossil fuels. Fossil fuel-based energy will be produced more efficiently due to nano fluids and other nanotechnology applications in the enhaced oil recovery process. The Department of Energy, oil industry and energy consumers should continue advocating for these carbon-dioxide reducing technologies.

    Renewables

     By 2040 renewables will have the fastest growth rate, they have increased 67 percent from 2000 to 20165, only supply 31% of energy6. The biggest source will be biomass — a health hazard used in the developing world. Wind (8% a year), solar, and biofuels will grow rapidly but will only be 15% at most of energy. While we will fail to meet net-zero emissions by 2050 and likely won’t implement an energy system based on 70-85% renewables, that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try to surpass the 31% forecast and reduce emissions through the employment of hydro fuel cell, solar, wind, and bio-energy in addition to a smart distributed energy grid.

     Renewable energy technologies such as solar energy, wind energy, hydrogen fuel cell, bioenergy from algae only make up 31% of all energy in our baseline 2040 future. Although they have grown at an incremental but slow rate they have been impactful on consumers, transportation, and the economy. Low-carbon sources led by solar PV supply over half of the growth. Oil flattened out in the past decade, and coal has fallen as expected by the IEA’s 2019 WEO. Solar PV energy leads renewable energy electricity generation. Growing investment in nanotechnology has decreased fossil fuel emissions and the NNI budget has increased vastly from the $343.1 million NNI budget from two decades ago. Oil companies like Shell and BP now implement nanotechnology in their energy production through the use of nanomaterials, carbon-capturing nanomembranes, and nanocatalysts. Oil production has not peaked thanks to EOR through nanotechnology applications. This has all caused the carbon-dioxide emission rates to fall substantially. Big companies like CO2 solutions are influential stakeholders that seek to limit greenhouse gases through carbon-capture technologies that remove exhaust from our power plants.

    The Smart Grid

     An opportunity for the future of the electricity grid is the smart grid — where utilities can better communicate with smart homes and consumers and measure homes’ electricity consumption more frequently to lower energy consumption and thereby emissions. Initially, the grid was designed in for utilities to deliver electricity to user homes on a small scale, then billed once a month but energy demand has increased exponentially since then. The one-way communication model of this initial system makes it difficult to meet increasing energy demand. Whereas smart grids enable consumers to manage electricity use to more evenly distribute electricity use. reduce power outages caused by weather and when demand outpaces supply. This is achieved by measuring energy fluctuations using smart sensors, then by rerouting power delivery. Ultimately this aids end-users through lowered production-costs and subsequently, smaller bills. This smart grid innovation is an economic benefit which helps end-user experiences.

    The Future of Solar Energy

    Solar energy is another big player in the future renewable energy industry with strong potential to replace a large percentage of fossil fuel’s market. Moreover, distributed energy has the most potential to increase through on-site solar installations of solar crystalline photovoltaics panels. They are the most efficient and deliver power to end-users. 

    Enough energy from the sun hits the earth every hour to power the earth for an entire year. The photons from the light strike the cell in the panel’s energy field, free electrons, and the electrons create electric current which then travels through an electrical circuit powering electrical devices or sending electricity to the grid. PV devices can power small electronics, homes, and businesses. They’re also the most cost-efficient for setting up a large-scale system.

    Thin film solar panels are also an innovative option for distributed power generation but they’re less efficient (11-13%) than PV which has 15-20% efficiency. They’re made with solar cells containing light-absorbing layers 350 times smaller than PV panels and thereby have less carbon offset in their production. Passive solar homes are also a good distributed power generation option but are more costly to be implemented on a large consumer scale. It’s easier to install PV panels than to redesign people’s entire homes.

    Wind Energy

    Wind power is the fastest growing, most efficient, cost-effective, and consumer-affordable energy source. For this reason, it  has the potential to expand its market share across the globe to developing nations. It has grown around 26% over the past 18 years and forecasts predict constant large-scale growth. Wind energy industry saw a record 8% US growth in 2018, and it is predicted to employ around 1.5 million people by 2020. Surpassing the estimate of 31% renewable energy to achieve a substantial cut in CO2 emissions, provide affordable energy world wide, and meet increasing demand of a world population over 9 billion will only be made possible through offshore and on-shore energy farms.

    Wind energy is the most efficient form of renewable energy, producing  1,164% efficiency in comparison to geothermal’s 514%, hydropower’s 317%, nuclear’s 290%, and solar’s 207%7. It is created by harnessing wind to generate electricity. Wind turbines capture the wind’s kinetic energy and rotate it turning it to mechanical energy. The rotation turns an internal shaft on a gearbox and spins a generator that produces electricity.

    Efficiency is calculated by the cost of fuel, production, and dealing with environmental damage. The 1,164% figure represents the percentage of energy input retained when converting fuel to electricity. Moreover, it is the least expensive renewable energy source to produce, with an average cost of $0.06 per kWh while other technologies such as solar panels cost  $0.10 per kWh at the lowest8.

     By 2050, 25-30 percent10 of global power could come from harnessing the wind (up from 3%11 in 2016.) This would help meet the 28% increase in energy consumption under CO2 emission constraints. Implementing this level of energy involves overcoming problems hindering energy deployment such as cost, resource availability, and policy decisions such as tax credits.

    Wind energy alone generated over $143 billion in private investment over the last decade. It produced $7.3 billion in public health benefits by cutting pollutants. This while only being the third most popular at only 18% of renewable energy consumption out of the 10% of total US renewable energy consumption. Overall, renewable energy is the fastest-growing energy source in the United States, increasing 67 percent from 2000 to 2016. They made up almost 15 percent of net U.S. electricity generation in 2016, with the majority coming from hydropower (6.5 percent) and wind power (5.6 percent). Renewables made up 24 percent of global electricity generation in 2014. That’s expected to rise to 31 percent by 204015. The most efficient increase will come from wind and hydropower.

    The wind industry has grown around 26 percent per year over the past 18 year. This is because wind power is the least-cost option for adding power capacity to the grid. Moreover, this industry currently employs around 600,00017. That figure could rise to around 1.5 million by 2020 and exceed 2 million jobs by 2030.

    Furthermore, two federal tax credits encourage renewable energy projects: the production tax credit (PTC) and the investment tax credit (ITC). The former, is available to renewable energy technologies, and wind, geothermal,  and closed-loop biomass, receive a 2.3 ¢/kWh ($23/MWh) credit for all electricity generated during the first 10 years of operation20. Wind, with an average total system cost of $64/MWh, the PTC yields a 34 percent cost reduction. Overall, the PTC alone drives about $15 billion per year in private investment in the U.S.

    A two megawatt wind turbine in a year can sometimes only produce 7,884 MW out of the theoretical maximum of 17,520 MW-hours due to wind strength inconsistency. This results in lost output, and only a 45% capacity factor. Offshore wind farms provide stronger, steadier winds and output. Moreover, the Department of Energy found the U.S. could develop a total of 86 GW of offshore wind projects by 2050. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory estimates that the technical resource potential for U.S. offshore wind is more than 2,000 gigawatts of capacity. A single offshore wind turbine of 3.6 MW at 90% capacity can power 2,584 average U.S. homes annually.

    Evidently, offshore wind farms produce twice as much energy as land-based wind farms while maintaining the same advantages. They deliver large-scale clean energy to fulfill the future 28% increase in energy demand and would rapidly exceed the 25% wind energy fraction of total energy consumption by 2050.  The wind sector has grown 25% per year over the past 18 years, employs 600,000 Americans, yields 1,164% efficiency, has the lowest average cost of $0.06 per kWh out of all renewable energy sources. It has produced $143 billion in private investment will continue to yield large profitability with the help of PTC and ITC incentives. Vind hopes to power the future in a sustainable and efficient way.

    The Future of Vehicles

    Hydrofuel cell cars are CO2 emission free, but they are pose an initial cost-efficiency challenge.Some estimate that hydrogen costs $18/million BTU while a fossil fuel like natural gas costs $6/million BTU. From the cleaner electrolysis process with electricity at 5 cents/kWh it will cost $28/million BTU — 1.5 times higher than producing it from natural gas.Additionally, the cost of building this new energy infrastructure for hydrogen cars would be a large investment.

    As of 2018, only 2.1% of vehicles sold were electric vehicles. While that is a record number signaling growth, it’s only a small percentage of all vehicles sold. The transition to electric vehicles will be a slow one, the largest forecasts expect electric vehicles to take up 10% of total new vehicle sales by 2025. Electricity and hydrogen powered cars are likely to see growth when manufacturing prices fall and more consumers can afford the new technology. The process of manufacturing is already more efficient since electric motors don’t require the same team of workers to produce different capacity engines (V8, etc.) Manufacturers also regain 1/3rd of the vehicle chassis by replacing technical combustion engines with electric motors.

    The Future of Biofuel

    By 2030, bio energy production will rise and we will move towards a slightly more sustainable economy with a wider use of renewable resources. The transition to a bio-based economy will be powered by cellulosic ethanol and algae-based bio energy, not corn ethanol. Biofuels can be used to build chemicals, materials, energy, and both internal combustion engines. Bio fuels have met some resistance as some argue that they are more costly to produce and less efficient by pointing to the net negative energy output. In reality, all fuels have a negative output — the energy in the oil pre-production isn’t counted.

    Companies like Vertigro and Wageningen UR are already building towards this sustainable future of energy by producing algae-based bio-energy. Vertigro seeks to produce over 20,000 gallons of bio-fuel on one acre. They believe with the amount of farm space of 1/10 the size of New Mexico we could produce enough fuel to fill the U.S.’ need for oil.

    Bio industrialism will also fuel this transition by innovating while lowering manufacturing costs and increasing output to build a more sustainable future. Wageningen believes the transition to a bio-energy based future will be built by the green raw materials, emission free production processes and bio-based products they produce.

    Carbon-pricing Schemes

    Over 40 countries have put a price on carbon, through direct taxes on fossil fuels or cap-and-trade programs. In Britain, coal use plummeted after the introduction of a carbon tax in 2013. Carbon pricing schemes are government policies designed to put a price on the carbon for the negative external costs produced by carbon emissions in order to reduce them. They come in two forms — an ETS ‘cap-and-trade system’ and a carbon tax. An ETS caps the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions and lets industries with low emissions sell their extra allowances to those with larger emissions. Supply and demand is created in this way and subsequently a market price for greenhouse gas emissions. We should push for carbon taxes which set a direct negative externality tax on greenhouse gas emissions for costs paid by the public through crop or health damage. 

    Summary

     Renewable energy technologies such as solar energy, wind energy, hydrogen fuel cell, bioenergy from algae only make up 31% of all energy in our baseline 2040 future, but carbon-sequestering nanotechnology has shown promising results in reducing CO2 emissions in a developing world economy of increasing fossil fuel demand. We currently consume over 11 billion tonnes of oil yearly. While oil reserves are used up at a rate of over 4 billion tonnes a year, at this rate our oil deposits will run out within about the next 53 years. Energy demand (calculated by through GDP and population growth), will grow by 28% by 2040 according to the EIA. If we do not implement renewable energy technologies and increase efficiency our consumption of energy (oil) will exceed production which peaked in the 1980s. 

    The total carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels increased by 1.6% in 2017 to 36.2 gigatonnes CO2. CO2 is the primary greenhouse gas produced by the burning of coal and other fossil fuels (oil and natural gas). Atmospheric CO2 levels have steadily increased since the late 1950s.This impacts climate change as elevated levels of heat-trapping CO2 in the atmosphere create what is known as a greenhouse effect. Thereby, trapping heat from escaping the earth. In turn, ocean temperature rises and causes climate change. About 40% of the CO2 emissions in the U.S. come from coal alone. We can’t simply eradicate carbon – (80% of CO2 emissions) – because it’s our main energy production source, but rather reduce emissions through carbon-capture technology such as sequestration.

    It’s an ambitious myth that climate change will be mitigated below the 1.5 C level by 2050 through a 80% CO2 reduction. Forecasts estimate that we will reach at most 31% renewable energy not the 70-85% goal. Over 50% of the energy mix will continue to be dominated by oil and gas as energy demand rises 27%, and 45% in developing countries with 1 billion people who will still lack electricity access. Methods to reduce and sequester CO2 emissions from fossil fuels as their demand rises with the growing 9 billion future population must be implemented. Nanotechnology can aid in this goal along with carbon sequestration to prevent energy supply shortages. Furthermore, we must heavily invest in the most powerful renewable energy in countries without barriers to access. Wind energy is the most efficient form,  producing 1,164% efficiency, it generates the most kWh at a low cost of production. Greenhouse gas emission reducing technology in conjunction with solar energy, electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles we can surpass this 31% figure to prevent increased global temperatures due to a 27% increase in energy demand, and can help meet the demand.We only have a finite supply of fossil fuels that is increasingly become limited in supply as the world population reaches over 9.8 billion by 2050. Fueling the future is a question of both meeting demand and meeting it sustainably. 

    Per baseline estimates, if we don’t implement these solutions, by 2040 the world will face an energy and global climate crisis as the 9 billion world population has increased energy demand by 27%, 45% in developing nations, 1 billion continue to lack electricity access and renewables have experienced slow growth — only making up 31% of the energy mix. Oil demand will reach 106 million BPD as projected by the IEA. Oil consumption will reach 225 quadrillion British thermal units, and natural gas 180 units (EIA). Despite a rise in renewable energy, fossil fuels will continue to supply over 50% of energy demand. The increased demand coupled with a slow renewable energy implementation has caused an energy conundrum on how to supply it under carbon-dioxide constraints. We will fulfill the IEA’s 2019 World Energy Outlook, and demand will rise 1.3% each of the next 20 years and exacerbated greenhouse emission levels. Due to this, carbon dioxide emissions will climb by 6% through 2040 and we will surpass the 1.5C constraint by 2050.

  • How to Feed 9.8 Billion Sustainably

    How to Feed 9.8 Billion Sustainably

    By the year 2050, the UN estimates the global population will reach a staggering 9.8 billion. One of the biggest existential challenges facing this population projection will be the 70% rise of food demand. With most growth generating from developing nations, high-yield agricultural solutions based on food technology, sustainability, precision farming, and genetically engineered crops must be implemented. A look at past successful Green Revolutions that have lifted millions out of starvation is necessary in order to solve the problems of low-yield, waste, climate change resistance, in order to implement necessary solutions.

    Currently, 850 million are malnourished, and 36 million die yearly worldwide despite there being enough food (the daily caloric intake of 2,870 calories) to feed the globe. Starvation will only be exacerbated by 2050 when food production will have to increase by 70% to meetdemand. This amounts to an estimated growth rate of 1.1% annually to cover food demand by 2050. Demand for grains used for human and animal consumption is expected to reach 3 billion tons by 2050 up from 2.1 billion tons currently. Current problems hindering increased food production are insufficient crop yield, food waste, affordability and extreme weather occurring to the detriment of crops.

    By 2050 world’s population will increase by over 35% and crop production will need to double. Food production is the largest non-CO2 environmental contributor so this can

    not be achieved through agricultural expansion but rather through precision farming techniques, food technology, sustainable meat production and the reduction of waste.

    Food production is the single largest contributor of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emission on the planet. Therefore, increasing low-yield agriculture sustainably, in order to feed 9.8 billion, has proven to be a great conundrum. Crop yield is defined as production per seed input per unit area of land. Currently, only 38% of the planet earth is ice-free land with only a smaller fraction used for farming and livestock grazing. Furthermore, agriculture is responsible for 75% of deforestation worldwide. In order to meet a 70% increase in food demand, we will have to increase land for agriculture by more than 36 million square kilometers and cut down 61% of today’s standing forests.

    “The relationship between population growth and food supply has been controversial at least since Reverend Thomas Malthus published An Essay on the Principle of Population in 1807. Malthus argued that human population will grow geometrically, unless it is controlled somehow— he suggested delaying marriage to decrease birth rates ( ).”

    Rising standard of living will exacerbate this land issue as demand for meat will go up. Meat production is responsible for the largest environmental pollution of the food industry. It takes 13 pounds of feed, 460 gallons of water, 7 square meters of land to produce just one beef patty. Today only 55% of the world’s agricultural calories feed people, while 36% feed livestock.

    Therefore, the solution to increasing yield and doubling food production, is producing more on less land, not agricultural expansion. Precision farming techniques successfully implemented in Netherlands, and other food technologies have proven effective at this. Crop production must double by 2050 through challenges such as insufficient yield, food waste, and extreme weather.

    Another issue which contributes to a insufficient food globally is food waste. It’s estimated that 25% of available calories are lost or wasted before they can be consumed. That is, 1.3 billion tons of food gone to waste every year through various stages of production and consumer handling. In monetary value that amount comes around to $1 trillion USD in lost food. Twenty-five percent of all wasted food could feed the 850 million undernourished people world-wide. In wealthy countries 222 million tons are wasted – the equivalent of all the food produced in sub-Saharan Africa (230 million tons). Americans specifically, waste about 141 trillion calories worth of food – that adds up to about $165 billion per year – four times the amount of food Africa imports each year. Furthermore, food waste generates 3.3 billion tons of carbon dioxide thereby hastening climate change.

    The scale of waste is vast — out of the 200 million metric tons of food produced annually in the U.S., 60 million tons go to waste. Residential waste is responsible for 47% of all waste in addition to waste caused by improper handling, transport quality deterioration, inadequate storage and cooling infrastructure. Agricultural losses in developed countries are estimated at 24-40% in developed nations due to selective produce standards. In the West: 20% is wasted during production and 33% trimmed during preparation.

    Scientists estimate climate change may reduce crop yields by 2% per decade over the next 100 years, with developing nations to be the worst affected. This issue must be adressed through sustainable or reduced meat production, halting deforestation and employing higher-yield farming techniques instead.

    Sustainability moves beyond the successful Green Revolution which fed a population that increased from 1.6 billion in 1900 to 6.1 billion by 2000. Sustainability is defined as defined as a “network that integrates several components in order to enhance a community’s environmental, economic and social well-being. It is built on principles that further the ecological, social and economic values of a community and region (CRC).” Implementing a sustainable system that can feed 9.8 billion people involves doing so by minimizing the intensive “use of water and fossil-fuel-based chemicals” of the Green Revolution. Increasing yield requires careful analysis and improvement on what has worked the past few decades. However, the process of modernizing the food supply began in France. France was one of the first nations to produce industrial foods as chemists and public food experts began manufacturing innovative foods (Spary).

    “Some examples of things that obviously cannot continue indefinitely are harvesting natural resources (such as fish, trees, or fresh water) faster than they are replenished…Soil loss due to erosion and excess accumulation of salt in soil are two examples of intrinsic threats to sustainability. Rates of soil loss often exceed the slow rates of replacement by natural soil-forming processes, especially when soil is disturbed by plowing or cultivation to kill weeds. Irrigation water always contains some salt, which can accumulate to levels that harm plants, unless it is removed via natural or artificial drainage (Denison 21).”

    The “Green Revolution” was the implementation of revolutionary agricultural practices beginning the mid-20th century which increased production of grains such as wheat and rice. High-yielding crops saw success in India and MexicoIn 1943, new agricultural techniques to help alleviate starvation and improve standards of living began in developing nations. Mexico went from importing around 50% of its wheat to being self-sufficient 8 years later, then exporting half a million tons per year. India and Pakistan lacked agricultural power to sustain population booms and Norman Borlaug’s agricultural techniques helped it become a top rice productor. India now exports 4.5 million tons of rice. Agricultural innovation in China, Vietnam, Brazil, Turkey, Mexico, and other countries helped save the lives of millions of people around the globe.

    This was made possible through the development of high-yield, disease-resistant, pest-resistant crop varieties. However, these genetically engineered crops used pesticides and chemical fertilizers to produce high yields. Many poor farmers weren’t able to afford this and it caused runoff which tainted vital water supplies.

    Population grows exponentially but agriculture was only able to grow at a linear rate. There was no possible way to feed the world population without implementing Bolgour’s techniques. The poor quality of soil in many developing nations of the world meant these necessary measures had to be taken.

    Subsequently, the Green Revolution increased crop yield. Especially in essential crops such as wheat which makes up 45% of the daily world diet. This revolution brought wheat crops with higher protein levels and disease-resistance. An essential to developing nations suffering from malnutrition and couldn’t otherwise obtain animal protein. Farmers were able to produce more food on less land thereby saving millions of acres of grassland and rainforest from destruction.

    What sparked this revolution is thought by author Curry to be a mutation breeding program beginning in the 1940s.

    “The initiative, begun in the early 1940s and funded by the Rockefeller Foundation, aimed to improve wheat and maize production in particular. Its successes, especially in producing high-yielding, disease-resistant wheat varieties and encouraging the adoption of intensive, industrial-style agricultural production, would later be credited with sparking the Green Revolution, first in Mexico and Latin America, and later in southeast Asia. These programs were closely tied to concerns about not only hunger but also the relationships among population growth, food security, and national and international security—concerns on the minds of governments, international organizations, and foundations alike in the early postwar (and Cold War) decades (Curry 195).” 

    A continuation of these food biotechnology advances enacted by Borlaug which doubled, even tripled yield, will increase productivity sufficiently to feed a growing world population. Optimizing plant breeding to maximize food output is key part of this process. Darwinian Agriculture, outlines specific actions that have proven effective, such as breeding plants for shorter stems to reduce lodging, breeding one stem plants with less leaf area and vertical leaves.

    “If our goal is to increase agriculture, what do we want to improve? Some important criteria include productivity (yield per acre, to use no more land than necessary), efficiency in the use of scarce resources (to use no more water than necessary, for example), stability over years (to prevent even occasional famines), and sustainability (to maintain all of these benefits over the long term). Improvements in any of these will affect the billions of us who live in cities, both through effects on our food supply and through effects on the availability of land and water for other uses. Other important goals include the health of wildlife living on or near farms and the welfare of people who work on or near farms (Denison 74).

    According to Darwinian Agriculture: How Understanding Evolution Can Improve Agriculture, experiments at the International Rice Research Institute showed “A shorter rice variety developed during the Green Revolution had much higher grain yield when grown alone than an older, taller variety, mainly because the short variety invested more (Denison 112).”

    The author Denison continues, “Selection for shorter, less-competitive, but higher-yielding plants during the Green Revolution is the best-known agricultural example of reversing an evolutionary arms race, but it is not the only one.”

    According to this body of research, traits that can increase crop yield in addition to shortness, and fewer and smaller leaves (Denison 113 ). ”At wide spacing, this reduced leaf area per plant would be insufficient to catch all the available sunlight.”

    “Donald also advocated more-vertical more-or-less overhead, a vertical leaf will catch less sunlight a same size..Donald also suggested that plants like wheat should have only one stem per plant (Denison 113 ).”

    In fact, the results of this mid-20th century movement have been so promising that currently, 92% of corn acreage in the United States has been genetically engineered. This crop has been modified to be insect resistant, herbicide tolerant, and more. Moreover, research has not showed a significant difference in nutritional content or safety of organic foods and ones produced conventionally.

    Furthermore, the use of nitrogen fertilizer and improved crop management throughout the 20th century, has led to six-fold increase in U.S. and Canadian corn yield between 1930 and 2000 (Denison 115).

    Netherlands has demonstrated that record high-yield can be achieved through precision farming; without the use of fossil-fuel-based chemicals and excess irrigation of the Green Revolution. That is target application of fertilizers, pesticides, and water through the use of computerized tractors equipped with sensors and GPS. In turn, this efficient system minimizes runoff into waterways.

    Despite being a small nation, Dutch farming is also paving the way for the future of food production through climate controlled greenhouses with crops planted in hydroponics.

    “First, only one of these problems is caused by excessive chemical inputs; furthermore, the input of concern is salt naturally present in irrigation water, rather than some synthetic chemical. So, although reducing synthetic inputs like pesticides may often be a good idea, that may not be enough to guarantee sustainability. Second, both erosion and salt accumulation can occur on either organic or conventional farms. If killing weeds with herbicides allows conventional farmers to use less tillage, then we need to compare the environmental impact of herbicides with possible increases in erosion from tillage (Denison 21).”

    Precision farming maps crops by using sensors, satellites, and drones to identify variations in crop yield. This analyzes moisture levels, nitrogen levels and more so farmers can optimize them. These techniques have resulted in Dutch agriculture to be the second larger exporter of agriculture, producing $92 billion worth of food. With some farms in the Netherlands producing twice the world’s average yield in potatoes per acre. The Netherlands could fit into the U.S. 200 times, yet they’re overwhelmingly providing the world’s food supply.

    Organic farming is another sustainable method that can reduce excess chemical and water use. It involves using mulches, compost, and water conservation. Farmers are using more precise irrigation methods such as subsurface drip irrigation.

    In order to sustainably feed a growing population of 9.8 billion without excessive environmentally detrimental measures, meat production must be reformed. Livestock feed doesn’t only take away nutritious grains that could otherwise feed the 850 million that go hungry, but also occupies 26% of ice-free land thereby having the largest ‘carbon-footprint.’

    It takes 13 pounds of feed, 460 gallons of water, 7 square meters of land to produce just one beef patty. Today only 55% of the world’s agricultural calories feed people, while 36% feed livestock. Furthermore, grains make up 45% of the diet yet 40% of grains worldwide are fed to cattle. The U.S. alone could feed 850 million people with the grain eaten by livestock. If U.S. grain was exported, it would boost the U.S trade balance by $80 billion a year.

    Concurrent rising populations and standard of living won’t see a decline in meat demand anytime soon, as more people can afford to buy meat. Therefore, efficient ways to produce meat and a change diets will be a solution to sustaining this food production. Instead of agricultural land expansion that requires cutting down 61% of forests to meet a 70% increase in demand, switching from grain-fed beef to pastured-raised farm animals is a solution.

    Increased grain-production is an essential part of feeding a world of 9.8 billion since grains make up 45% of the world diet.

    “World grain production per person peaked around 1984. Since then, population growth has outpaced increases in production. 7 By 2006, worldwide grain production per person had fallen to 1.8 pounds (0.83 kilogram) per day. If none of this grain were spoiled, eaten by rats or farm animals, or fermented into ethanol, then it would provide more than enough protein and energy (3000 calories per day) for a healthy diet. However, the efficiency of conversion from grain calories to meat calories (chicken or pork) is only 15 to 25 percent, 16 so 1.8 pounds of grain would yield less than 1000 meat calories per person per day. In other words, the world currently produces enough food for an adequate grain-based diet for everyone, but not enough for everyone to eat a meat-based diet (Denison 17).”

    Neither population growth or meat consumption will decrease so freeing up livestock feed for human consumption is the optimal solution ( ). “First, there are far more people of child-bearing age or younger than there are people dying of old age. Therefore, even an immediate and universal switch to two-child families would take decades to slow and stop population growth. Second, many people like to eat meat. As people who could rarely afford meat in the past become richer, global meat consumption is likely to increase (Denison 17).”

    Additionally, the reduction of food waste is essential to feeding 9.8 billion. Currently, 25% of all waste food could feed the 850 million undernourished people in the world. This can be achieved using bacteria monitors such as a biosensing patch. Food manufacturers can “easily incorporate this into [their] production process ( ).”

    Another factor hindering increased production is climate change. Agriculture accounts for at least 20% of total greenhouse gases emissions ( ). Climate change and agriculture are interrelated processes. That is, climate change affects agriculture and agricultural emissions aggravate climate change. This is because food production is the single largest contributor of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emission on the planet. Scientists estimate climate change may reduce crop yields by 2% per decade over the next 100 years, with developing nations to be the worst affected. This issue must be addressed through sustainable or reduced meat production, halting deforestation and employing higher-yield farming techniques instead.

    Poor small farmers, and already food-insecure areas will be the worst affected in areas such as Africa were drought has caused mass devastation, and Asia where flooding and cyclones have ruined crops. In order to prevent mass starvation, extreme-weather resistant genetically engineered crops must be used.

    “Today, agriculture often makes negative rather than positive contributions to some aspects of environmental quality. For example, nutrient runoff from agriculture (nitrogen mostly from fertilizer use on cropland; phosphorus mostly from animal manure on pastures and rangeland 58 ) is thought to be a cause of the oxygen-free “dead zone” in the Gulf of Mexico (Denison 28 ).”

    Genetically modified crops have already seen tremendous increases in agricultural output following the Green Revolution. Because of this, global grain supplies are at record low prices and GMO crops have increased yield for 20 years. Higher yield without agricultural expansion is a strategy essential to preserving the natural ecosystem according to Darwinian Agriculture.

    Nevertheless, it is clear that natural ecosystems do provide major benefits to humans. Forests remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, thereby reducing global warming with all of its risks (spread of malaria mosquitoes out of the tropics, flooding of coastal cities from melting polar ice, and so on). Both forests and wetlands purify water, benefiting fisheries as well as drinking water.

    Affordability is another component of current mass starvation facing developing nations. Developing countries will be the fastest growing nations in the coming decade with sub-Saharan Africa’s population growing the fastest (!14%), while East Asia’s the slowest (13%) ( ).

    Production in developing countries will need to double. Annual grain production would have to increase by one billion tonnes, meat by over 200 million tonnes. Furthermore, areable land available is scarce and “suffers from constraints (chemical, physicial, endemic diseases, lack of infrastructure) ( ).”

    Water scarcity in many countries also questions the effectiveness of a genetically-engineered-only strategy. As occurred during the Green Revolution, poor farmers did not have the resources to continuously irrigate and tend to GMO seeds as was required for higher yield. These GMO seeds required higher amounts of water and fossil-fuel based chemicals such as herbicide.

    Per the USDA, the implementation of genetically modified crops by farmers “has increased herbicide use over the past 9 years in the U.S.” Glyphosate for one, is the active ingredient in Monsanto’s Round Up.

    Genetically engineered crops date back to the mid-20th century. Curry best described the process of genetic and breeding involved modern food and grain creation.

    “It took until the 1960s for one variety of the hybrid grain, called triticale (referring to the genus names for wheat and rye, Triticum and Secale ), to finally enter commercial production. Unfortunately, the earliest varieties of triticale had many traits that rendered them unsuitable to both growers and consumers. Another decade of breeding efforts resulted in improved lines of triticale and interest in the crop resurged in the 1980s. Triticale nonetheless did not become a global economic crop as breeders had once envisioned (Curry 113).“

    These developing countries spend 60-80% of their income food. While Americans spend 10%. Moreover, U.S. food insecurity rates decreased in 2015 to 12.7% from 14.0%. If massive increases in agricultural yield are not achieved, matched by massive decreases in the use of water and fossil fuels, a billion or more people may face starvation.

                                                                Works Cited

    Allen, Mark W., and Terry L. Jones. Violence and Warfare among Hunter-Gatherers. Routledge, 2016.

    Britannica, The Editors of Encyclopaedia. “Green Revolution.” Encyclopædia Britannica, Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc., 12 Mar. 2009, www.britannica.com/event/green-revolution.

    Curry, Helen Anne. Evolution Made to Order: Plant Breeding and Technological Innovation in Twentieth-Century America. The University of Chicago Press, 2016.

    Denison, R. Ford. Darwinian Agriculture: How Understanding Evolution Can Improve Agriculture. Lightning Source UK Ltd., 2017.

    Foley, Jonathan. “A Five-Step Plan to Feed the World.” Feeding 9 Billion – National Geographicwww.nationalgeographic.com/foodfeatures/feeding-9-billion/

    Global Agriculture towards 2050. fao.org/fileadmin/templates/wsfs/docs/Issues_papers/HLEF2050_Global_Agriculture.pdf

    Hoffman, Beth. “GMO Crops Mean More Herbicide, Not Less.” Forbes, Forbes Magazine, 2 July 2013, www.forbes.com/sites/bethhoffman/2013/07/02/gmo-crops-mean-more-herbicide-not-less/#300ec7713cd5.

    Rintoul, Jesse. “Farming for the Future: 5 Reasons Why the Netherlands Is the 2nd Largest Food Exporter in the World – DutchReview.” DutchReview, 1 Mar. 2019, dutchreview.com/news/innovation/how-the-netherlands-remains-second-largest-agriculture-exporter-in-the-world/. Spary, Emma C. Feeding France: New Sciences of Food, 1760-1815.

  • Mexico’s Gilded Economic Inequality

    Mexico’s Gilded Economic Inequality

    From the Spanish crown to the corrupt camarilla elite, Mexico’s leaders have long kept a strangle hold on middle-class growth in Mexico. It’s the stimulus in the Mexican negative feedback loop of political turmoil – widespread poverty in the 12th world’s largest economy is the issue to end all other issues. Poverty fuels organized crime, and crime fuels corruption.  Yet despite vast economic growth per foreign trade, investment, and a series of new government programs – 43.6% of the country has been left behind to fair without education, access to healthcare, or the sufficient income to buy food. Upwards trending GDP has left GDP per capita trailing at staggeringly low rates for the past years – $19,500 in 2017 according to The World Factbook (just above China.) Productivity of the labor force is not to blame for the country’s destitute conditions, there is a government and education system suppressing the flourishment of the middle-class.

    The Mexican government has forlorn its pact to Article 123 of its constitution. It states, “the minimum salaries should be sufficient to satisfy the normal necessities of the worker’s life, his education and honest pleasures, as head of a family.” Yet 43.6% of the country can not afford to put food on the table. Such is the case food basket cost $10.53 a day. Based on the $4.70 daily minimum wage, a worker could only afford 44.5% of the food group. This stagnant minimum wage (12 times lower than the U.S. daily ‘wage’ of $58.00) is not only suppressing basic human rights, but Mexicans’ purchasing power.

    Mexico’s GDP is higher than Canada, Australia’s, and two places lower than the United Kingdom’s, yet the individual quality of life, and GDP per capita remains manifold times lower than all its successors at with $19,500 at the 89th place. As an effect, a consumer driven economic boom has been halted. Subsequently, so has been progress and development. This dissonance is testament to the extreme wealth inequality of the country – the top 10% own 42.2% of the wealth, while the bottom 10% own 1.3%. It ranks 4th with the most number of poor among richest economies. While GDP per-capita has grown 98.7%; over the last 20 years, there are still 3.5 million people in poverty for every millionaire.

    Some might blame the labor force for these conditions, but statistics show this not to be true. Mexican workers worked a total of 2,255 hours in 2016 – the most of the 35 OECD members, compared to the 1,783 U.S. hours worked. Despite this, workers earned the lowest in the OECD rankings, on average $14,867, while U.S. workers earned $58,714. Mexicans are working longer hours than any other country a year yet earning the least. What can account for this unjust disparity?

    Once the relationship with inflation and wages is analyzed, it’s evident that government monetary policies are to blame for conditions of poverty. The minimum wage lost 75% of its purchasing power in the past 30 years according to The Conversation. The nominal minimum wage has increased 12.8% but prices increased 26.9% due to inflation – lowering purchasing power by 11.11% in the last 3 years, according to Animal Politico. Mexico’s Central bank wants to keep the wage this way to prevent inflation at the expense of the average Mexican citizen. The Consejo Nacional de Evaluación de la Política Social, calculates that “for a daily minimum basket for two people to live on, the minimum wage would need to increase more than 145%,” to $8.75 a day. Mexico’s bottom 20% doesn’t make enough to eat three meals a day.

    Poverty needs to be at the forefront of Mexican politicians’ agendas, overall GDP growth has only deepened the wealth gap and lined the top-earner’s pockets. This is because previous administrations have focused on private investment rather than poverty-combating programs. So much is evidenced by 2016’s lagging GDP per capita growth rate of 0.96%, compared to its respective 2.3% GDP growth. Despite anti-poverty efforts such as Prospera and a 16% increase between 1990 and 2012 in the budget of social programs poverty has been reduced by less than 2%. Under President Peña Nieto’s it fell by a measly 0.3% from 2012-2014, and “poverty rates have increased in many Mexican states.”

    To combat this epidemic (and the domino effect it has with surging crime and corruption), Mexico should embrace leftist economic reforms. Doing so by gradually increasing the minimum wage $8.75 a day to combat inflationary effects and fuel a consumer-driven economic boost. The middle and working class do have the largest marginal propensity to consume. After all, private consumption accounts for “over two thirds of gross domestic product.”

    A highly-skilled and educated majority class must be developed to eradicate mass poverty. Although the number of students enrolled in school has grown since the 1950s700,000 students dropped out in 2009, 7.9% of the population is illiterate, and “73% of households have a member with education below the 7th grade.” Mexico must broaden it’s education efforts by investing a larger percent of their budget into the system.

    Mexico was governed by a single party for 60 years, the entire country was organized to enrich those in power so it’s no surprise that widespread poverty is the natural outcome. The OECD even found Mexico was the most corrupt of all of its members. To move forward with policies helping the working class it must eradicate corruption and weed out bad politicians. To complete its transformation into a developed country it must liberalize individual economic freedom and increase access to educational opportunities. The government must be held accountable to Article 123.

  • Legalization: The End to Mexico’s Drug Violence

    Legalization: The End to Mexico’s Drug Violence

    Over a decade after former President Felipe Calderon launched a militarized crusade against drug cartels, Mexico has recorded its highest homicide rate of 19.4 since the interior ministry began keeping records, with a staggering 29,168 murders in 2017. Despite lethal military deployment and a winning ‘kingpin-strategy’ (Nieto has neutralized 89% of drug-cartel leaders on his list), it has only culminated in spikes of drug-violence that have left over 175,000 dead in the last 10 years.  That is, because military force won’t halt the leading U.S. demand for drugs (and weapon smuggling), eliminate the incentive to join cartels in a poverty-stricken country with farmers hurt by NAFTA, or the corruption which the narco-state burgeons on.

    The cartel violence reigning down in Mexico is the result of a profitable illegal industry competing for territory, empowered by corruption, and sustained by poverty. A decade of failing drug war policy requires a different kind of diplomacy – a way to remove the profit incentive altogether. The government  has amped up organized-crime-combatting efforts, but security analysts agree that they’ve unwittingly led to a violence-wave as kingpins fight for control. Legalization of drugs is the quickest death to cartels and their endless terror.

    Although such a far-fetched proposal is considered political suicide on both sides of the border, it’s a strategy which has been economically and statistically proven to work by the growing number of U.S. states legalizing marijuana. Marijuana legalization has already slashed cartel profit and decreased violence in Mexico. Marijuana seizures on the U.S.-Mexico border are down from 4 million pounds (2009) to 1.5 (2015) with the Mexican army seeing a 32% drop in confiscations. (The lowest levels in the last decade.) Subsequently, this has resulted in what military force has failed to do – decreased violence.

    Legalization eliminates the astounding U.S. demand fueling the black market. Nonetheless, to understand solutions, we must understand the causes. The U.S. is the leading consumer of drugs – more drugs are purchased by them than the rest of the world combined. After the Decada Perdida where 800,000 jobs were lostby the 90s, 85% of U.S. cocaine came through Mexico. During Felipe Calderon’s term, the Mérida Initiative of militarized-combat was put into effect as the mean to a fruitless end. A whopping U.S.-sponsored $1.6 billion later, and the war between drug cartels  has killed 63,000 in the past six years.

    Without demand for an illegal good, there would be no black market. Black markets fuel violence since disputes can’t be resolved within legal institutions, but rather with U.S. smuggled guns. (Seventy-percent of guns seized in Mexico and traced by the US Bureau of ATF from 2009 to 2014 came from the US). Without demand there would be no drug crime, or the skyrocketing levels of corruption generated by participants infiltrating municipal police forces, and bribing the legal system.  A level so high it leaves the country ranked at 123rd among 176 countries in the 2016 CPI. Legalization would eliminate the profit-incentive for cartels to exist – and therefore impose violence and corrupt the governmental system.

    According to the Washington Post, it’s estimated that a “$2,000 kilogram of cocaine could be imported for less than $50 and sold for a small markup from its price in Colombia.” While criminalization drives the cost to $20,000, retailing for over $100,000. Without these profits, the cartels and their heinous crimes against humanity would cease.

    Public health qualms about such a radical proposal are often raised, but countries that have decriminalized have seen little to no increase in drug use. For one, Portugal’s drug decriminalization has reduced drug-related harm. Drug use has decreased since, with rates maintained below the European average (far lower than the U.S.) Furthermore, state-control prevents overdoses and spread of disease caused by a lack of regulation.

    However, drug violence doesn’t operate in a vacuum; the epidemic is created through decades of complex sociopolitical conditions. One of those being the 45.5% poverty rate of a country ranking 13th in GDP. In a recent presidential debate MORENA candidate Obrador rightfully argued that reducing poverty was the only way to fight cartels. It’s join or starve for many that find themselves without job prospects or educational attainment. And cartels recruit from this urban unemployed sector. The 1980s economic crisis which resulted in 800,000 job losses exacerbated inequality and eliminated upward mobility opportunities.

    These conditions were aggravated by NAFTA which hurt farmers with the removal of tariffs and quotas on imports. Farmers then resorted to growing marijuana to survive due to the removal of these subsidies.

    Furthermore, corruption facilitates mass violence. The country earned the narco-state label due to the number of police are involved in kidnappings, extortions, and protection for organized crime in exchange for bribes. They’re considered the most corrupt public-institution in the country, with the lowest reliability for crime protection. To decrease corruption levels, they must continue down the path of firing corrupt officials as Attorney General Morales has with 10% of the police force. It must also raise police salaries of $588 a month. The benefits would exceed the cost (which is over 10% of GDP.)

    Decades of the drug war has resulted in Mexico’s highest homicide rate since its recorded history. It’s cost the country not only US $134 billion, but endless lives. Mexico must eliminate the black market by decriminalizing, expand poverty-relief programs to prevent cartel recruitment, clamp down on corruption by overhauling its police force, and end weapon smuggling.

  • No Equality without Economic Justice

    No Equality without Economic Justice

    Why are people with the same economic interests so divided?  It’s not “economic anxiety”; a vote in Iowa is the equivalent of 5 California votes. The answer is grounded in American history spanning back 300 years when racial animosity was harnessed by elite landowners to destroy class solidarity and prevent rebellions. Divided, those with the same economic interests fell. This covert phenomenon rooted in the Reconstruction Era when the KKK emerged with lynchings because slaves were seen as competition to poor whites, culminated in major whole redistributions of wealth as experienced in the 1980s – through Nixon’s Southern strategy of white political realignment. Not much has changed as “economically anxious” coal-country Trump voters march on the streets chanting nazi mantras, call brown countries “sh*tholes,” and tell minorities to get out of ‘their’ countries. Convinced that it’s not the bipartisan iron triangle of excessive corporate influence, it’s not the crony oligarchy corrupting the democratic process running their economic prospects, it’s minorities as they’ve been indoctrinated. Thus, the white working class American votes out of resentment, against their best interests for the party of slavery, Jim Crow, and segregation (they realigned) that pretends to care about said coal-country. While Democrats offer condescending rhetoric worthy of the “East-coast lib” caricature, tokenism, and identity politics over economic justice.

    If you can convince the lowest white man he’s better than the best colored man, he won’t notice you’re picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he’ll empty his pockets for you.”  Franklin D. Roosevelt

    During the Reconstruction Era, freed slaves were given “40 acres and a mule,” the first policy offering economic justice to African Americans in the form of land redistribution. But racist sentiment did not end with the 13th Amendment. Poor, non-land owning white men saw these policies being enacted and subsequently emerged the KKK. Equality of opportunity felt like oppression. Slaves were seen as competition too poor whites, and they became Southern Democrats (or modern-day Republicans), instead of standing in solidarity with other poor blacks. This, in short, is the history of racial class division, the source of the 1980s Southern strategy, and the 2016 election-winning Trump strategy targeting minorities.

    What does all of this well-curated racism mean? A skyrocketing wealth gap where the rich get richer and the poor get poorer as they fight over Muslim bans and border walls aiming to keep brown people out. It’s not the “swamp” ruining my economic prospects, it’s minorities. It’s not my grades ruining my chances of getting into college, it’s minorities. In this alternative-reality all brown people are threats to the in-group, the Muslim ban which bans zero of the countries that have caused terrorism in the US nor the one that caused 9/11 because Trump has business ties there, is good because screw refugees that have never caused a terrorist attack in the U.S. in the last 30 years in the US. A $35 billion safety-blanket of a wall rendered useless by net negative illegal-immigration, the fact that immigrants have a lower crime rate than native-born Americans, and half of illegals fly here and overstay Visas (meaning they’ve already been vetted) is good because it’s a monumental ‘screw you’ to more brown people.

    These are the real identity politics – the politics of fear, the politics of alternative facts raised as a modern-day Southern strategy to keep whites voting against their best interest, to keep them voting for their only interest under the imagined threat of immigrants.

    Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s revelation stands tall, “If you can convince the lowest white man he’s better than the best colored man, he won’t notice you’re picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he’ll empty his pockets for you.” And empty their pockets they have: with transfer of wealth tax cuts in the ‘80s were the poor were left behind and the top 1% saw their income triple, with the Bush tax cuts which raised unemployment to 6%, and finally the failing Kansas trickle-down experiment of 2012 which caused job growth and personal income to lag the US economy. Most recently the MAGA tax-cut which laid off almost 10,000 employees and closed 63 Walmart stores. They’ll vote against job creation, against the Obamacare they’re on because “Obama,” and vote for cuts to their own Social Security.Who knew corporate tax cuts didn’t increase demand/a need for more hiring?

    While Republican appeals to racism drew aggrieved racists to the GOP, the Democratic party ensured they had no incentive to leave. By pushing for their interpretation of social justice without economic reform, they’ve shed the New Deal-style agenda which successfully gave birth to a middle-class and watched it flourish. Democrats don’t have actual solutions to address the causes of poverty, the causes of bankruptcy-inducing healthcare, of widening inequality – they have band-aids. They simply pad problems with government money instead of offering progressive solutions directly addressing the root cause, as well as corruption. Instead of cracking down on price gouging and regulating the oil industry more strictly, they increase LIHEAP funding. Instead of Regulating pharmaceutical prices to lower the cost of American medicine, they throw money at each other. It’s all thanks to the unbreakable, bipartisan, iron triangle. Both parties take money from the same donors and pretend to care about working-class interests.

    This, again, is not to say racists crawled to a white supremacist, historically incompetent Fuhrer because of economic anxiety of course. The Democratic party is still light years better than Republicans in terms of the working class (which isn’t saying much.)

    Pretending like the Midwest was driven to such extremes because of “jobs” is complete bullcrap. Are the 95% of Democrat-voting black people wealthy elites? Are there are no working class democrats desperate for jobs? Are they not desperate for jobs? There are, but they’re not driven by racism – much less driven by racism to ‘empty their pockets’ for the exploited rich whose wealth will ‘trickle-down.’ Low income minorities did not elect Trump, “cultural” anxiety did. In fact, “views on immigration, Muslims drove white voters to Trump.

    As many tokens hiding corporatist, centrist agendas the Democrats posture for 2020 with the promise of change, there can be no equality without economic justice. The same people who gave us brought you winning Hillary are now pushing big Wall Street money recipients who decline to prosecute fraudsters like Munich for 1,000 cases of mortgage fraud, Senators who vote against lower pharmaceutical prices. They’re doing this and expecting something other than a rehashing of the 2016 election.

    After the passage of the 1964 Civil Rights Act, Martin Luther King Jr. felt that the de-jure fight wasn’t over. The Reverend held a radical bastion of economic justice as the ultimate goal, and in the weeks before his assassination, he was advocating around an economic message for all people.  Now our struggle is for genuine equality, which means economic equality. For we know that it isn’t enough to integrate lunch counters. What does it profit a man to be able to eat at an integrated lunch counter if he doesn’t earn enough money to buy a hamburger and a cup of coffee?He went on to start the Poor People’s Campaign in 1967 which demanded a progressive agenda based on jobs and higher wages.

    Although he went further in his calls for universal basic income, his message did not stray from the core truth – a man isn’t free if he can’t afford the basic necessities to survive. As Anatole France is quoted, “The law, in its majestic equality, forbids rich and poor alike to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal their bread.”

    The only way to lower partisan divide is through an economic message; no gimmicks, no pure opposition campaigns, and no identity politics. To stand behind ideas the majority of Americans support. Fifty-eight percent  of Americans support single-payer, 88% oppose cuts to Social security, voters in red states want Medicaid expanded, 68% think the wealthy pay too little taxes, 64% support regulating greenhouse gas emissions,58%  support breaking up big banks, 63% support raising the minimum wage to $15.00, 53% support labor union law, 64% think corporations don’t pay their fair share.

  • Trickle-Down Economics Never Worked

    Trickle-Down Economics Never Worked

    Time and time again, history has proven our economy to be better under democratic presidents and, thus Keynesian economic policy. It’s no mystery as to why republican Congresses have been responsible for the last four major economic crisis in the: 1930s, 1970s, 2001, and 2008. Supply-side economics simply doesn’t work in non-Stagflation conditions. As it turns out, lower income tax rates for the wealthy and an increased tax burden for the lower classes doesn’t deliver to middle-class Americans – the driving force behind the economy with the largest MPC.

    The phrase “trickle-down” is a misnomer which obfuscates the dire effects the economic policy’s implementation has had on our US economy throughout history. From tripling the national debt, skyrocketing income inequality by solely serving as a transfer of wealth to the top 1% while the middle-class is left behind, and causing a deep recession in 1982 with an unemployment rate of 10.8%. To the Bush tax cuts which raised unemployment to 6%, and finally the failing Kansas trickle-down experiment of 2012 which caused job growth and personal income to lag the US economy. Logically, the President Trump thinks ‘lets do it all over again’ and bankrupt the US economy like one of his casinos by reducing corporate tax rates from 35 to 15 percent.

    Reaganomics is not effective at growing the economy – just lining the wealthy’s pockets. Yes, Reaganomics pulled the country out of a recession but only because it wasn’t just any recession – it was one marked by high inflation, and unemployment – aka ‘Stagflation.’ This occurs when aggregate supply goes down because there is a shortage of goods due to a supply shock which has caused cost-push inflation. Under such a double-whammy, supply-side economics is the only solution to restoring the economy back to equilibrium. It increases GDP without increasing the price level. However, Reagan’s failure was adding a detrimental twist to supply-side by combining tax cuts for the wealthy with big spending.

    Image result for stagflation graph

    But we haven’t experienced such a situation since the ‘70s therefore this economic policy should in way be looked at as precedent or a success story of economic prosperity – it wasn’t and never has been, not for the 99%.

    Under our current conditions where aggregate supply exceeds demand, demand-side economics should be enacted to push demand even further to full employment. Although we’re already pretty close, more growth can’t hurt us to the point where we’re needing contractionary policy yet. It’s proven successful with the past three democratic presidents, but it’s important to look back at what doesn’t work and why first.

    Although Ronald Reagan did end the left-over Stagflation, it’s by no means proof supply-side is the superior fiscal tool in boosting the US economy. Reaganomics as expansionary fiscal policy simply doesn’t work. As mentioned, it only works during periods of Stagflation to pull the country out of crisis but it does not propel tremendous growth or meet any of Republicans’ promises.

    President Reagan’s tax cuts coupled with increased spending in the 1980s turned out to be a disaster. He cut the top tax rate from 70% to 28%, the corporate tax rate from 46-40%, while increase government spending by 2.5% per year, thereby tripling the national debt ($997 billion-$2.85 trillion in 1989.) By not just cutting taxes and lowering spending to run surplus, he created a domino effect of financial crisis. The deficit skyrocketed (because expenditures exceeded revenue by far) which led to inflationary problems such as high interest rates and subsequent low consumer purchasing power. This sparked a recession in 1981 and 1982 with an unemployment rate of 10.8%. High interest rates made the value of a dollar rise and exports decreased.The market eventually balanced itself out, but there’s no shadow of a doubt Reagan’s brand of supply side had dire effects – especially on the middle class.

    As the consumerist 80s appeared to be outwardly flourishing as a nation, the middle-class trailed behind as income inequality worsened. This was a natural effect of cutting taxes for the wealthy and not for the majority of Americans who happen to have the highest marginal propensity to consume. Economic prosperity trickled up – as the transfer of wealth tax cut was designed to do – and the top 1% saw their income triple.

    Why doesn’t the middle-class benefit as promised – why didn’t wealth “trickle-down?” Well because corporations don’t increase hiring or invest more. Tax-dodging corporations such as Verizon, Exxon-Mobil, AT&T had job growth of less than 1% since 2008, compared to 6% for the private sector as a whole, and slashed hundreds of thousands of jobs.

    Who knew corporate tax cuts didn’t increase demand and therefore a need for more hiring? It’s astounding how Americans have been tricked into ignoring the basic rules of supply and demand to support the biggest scam. Corporations only hire people when increased demand requires it – when consumption by the middle-class increases, not when they receive massive tax cuts. No amount of tax cuts will increase demand for their goods.

    Not only aren’t corporate tax cuts stimulating the economy, but top tax bracket ones aren’t either. As Gordon Gekko explained, the wealthiest earners have a low marginal propensity to consume, they spend 5-10% of their earnings, while the middle and lower classes spend 100-110% of theirs because they have the highest velocity of money/MPC.

    The real growth-drivers in America should be the ones receiving tax cuts to increase demand, GDP, and actually incentivize (force) businesses to hire more people. By focusing on policies which allow working and middle-class Americans to have more spending money and increasing human capital through a focus on education we can drive economic growth through the roof. And that vision is precisely what Democratic economic policies are centered around – a vision which has proven time and time again to work.

    Not only have Keynesian policies been effective at pulling us out of recessions caused by republicans, but by every important measure, our nation’s economic performance after their implementation outpaces that of the early 1980s.

    Image result for average yearly job growth under presidents

    Bill Clinton managed to become the most successful in terms of economics, out of the past six presidents by increasing taxes by about 8% on the top 5% of households in 1993. Following that, our country gained a surplus of $236 million, cut unemployment in half, and experienced 7 years of vast growth. Of course, this was only possible with a decrease in federal spending. Something that worked then because of the existing inflationary gap which he had to combat by decreasing aggregate demand.

    Despite all of this, Wall Street savior Trump wants a rehashing of 1982, of the Bush tax cuts which increased unemployment to 6%, and of the Kansas trickle-down failure.  An experiment in wealth redistribution to the wealthy which left the state with an unsustainable billion-dollar deficit, withered services, and general lagging growth rates after taxes were slashed tremendously and business income taxes were completely eliminated. The tax-dodging  Con-Artist-in-Chief wants Kansas but on $35 billion dollar border-wall steroids. All while “eliminating” the $19 trillion national debt of course. By slashing the corporate tax rate from 35 to 15 percent he’ll cost the government $2.4 trillion over a decade. How’s that for conservative fiscal policy?

    It’s clear that Reaganomics does not work as expansionary fiscal policy and is detrimental to the middle class. A scam that has been packaged as nation-wide prosperity which has many believing giving the rich more money to save is going to somehow increase their economic prospects. Because logic. We haven’t experienced Stagflation since the 1970s but let’s give corporations a tax break because somehow that’s supposed to increase aggregate demand, therefore hiring, and GDP growth fueled by consumerism. Oh wait, that’s what Keynesian policy does.We are to ignore history and ignore basic laws of supply and demand, and that the only way to gracefull employment, is by stimulating demand.

  • The Bipartisan Case for Single-Payer

    The Bipartisan Case for Single-Payer

    It’s time to stop putting political ideology over the welfare of the country. In the world-power that is the United States, medical expenses have long been the number one cause of bankruptcy, with 78% of filers already having health-insurance. It should be considered a serious issue when inhabitants of the wealthiest country have to choose between death or bankruptcy, food or medicine. The healthcare industry has turned into a for-profit business, which despite having skyrocketing costs, leave us at 33rd place in life expectancy and outcomes that are not notably superior. To put it simply, Americans are paying more tax money per capita and getting less. Whether one thinks healthcare is a right or not, you should favor the most fiscally responsible choice, a choice which happens to save millions of Americans lives. And that is the core of a single-payer system. People must wake up and smell the ‘red-scare’ the GOP has been harping on us, they’re beholden to their corporate donors – not fiscal conservatism or what’s best for the country. Healthcare is a basic human need that’s been served as a privilege and run as a business, a business profiting off the very ill it’s meant to help.

    The hasty, botch-job Congress tried to pass as an Affordable Care Act replacement failed for a reason. That reason being that the culmination of 7 years of GOP temper-tantrums was a plan to uninsure 24 million, provide a $300 billion tax break for their swamp monsters, cut Medicaid, cut coverage,& raise premiums to a point where 64-year-old making $26,000 a year, would see a staggering $13,000 increase. Promoted by “policy wonks” who just literally have no idea how healthcare works. Per Satan himself, Sean Spicer: “I think if you’re an older man you can generally say that you’re not going to need maternity care.” And the party’s collective intellect/brain, Paul Ryan: “The whole idea of Obamacare is…the people who are healthy pay for the…sick. It’s not working, & that’s why it’s in a death spiral.” (It’s not.) A man who’s been dreaming about medicaid cuts since he was “drinking out of kegs.” A plan so villainous and nonsensical it made emergency services, maternity care, pediatric care, and even hospitalization optional for health insurance companies. Whenever you’re wondering why the government is doing something incredibly heinous, just follow the money. Ryan’s second largest campaign donation contributor is Blue Cross/Blue Shield. And he’s owned by billionaires in general, of course he’s pushing for their tax cuts, but I digress.

    Here’s where the numbers come in. Our healthcare spending crowns us with the title of the most expensive and ineffective system in the world. We currently spend $20 trillion a year; $15 trillion through insurance premiums and $5 trillion through co-pays. With the government spending an amount per capita far more than any other nations at $3.2 trillion a year, 17% of our GDP, $10,000 per person. That’s double what the United Kingdom spends, and more than Germany and Canada, for a whole lot of medically induced bankruptcy here.

    Contrary to popular American-exceptionalist-belief, this does not give us better healthcare:

    “Despite having the most expensive health care system, the United States ranks last overall among 11 industrialized countries on measures of health system quality, efficiency, access to care, equity, and healthy lives, according to a new Commonwealth Fund report.”

    In a study, 68% of adults 65+ were found to have at least two chronic conditions compared to 33% in the United Kingdom and 56% in Canada. We are also 33rd in life expectancy and our healthcare outcomes are “not notably superior.”

    At this point, you should be asking yourself, who’s to blame for this cost-ineffective system bringing us subpar care? The answer is – the for-profit industry sustained by insurance companies. We’ve created a broken system where the goal is maximizing profit. This inevitably leads to over-treatment, inflated prescription drug prices, and 30 million drastically uninsured. We’re quite literally profiting off illness. It’s a system where the same procedure is charged different amounts depending on your insurance.  For many, this industry pushes them into a house foreclosure or death. We’ve twisted the definition of ‘care’ into a greedy, bureaucratic one, antithetical to the reason why people become healthcare providers in the first place. Why are we okay with all of this? Why are we okay with investors and CEO’s making billions of off the most vulnerable in our society while they suffer then inevitably die?

    It’s not cost-effective, it’s not outcome effective. The only people this crony system benefits is insurance and pharmaceutical industry CEO’s. Not the people providing healthcare, not the people receiving it. The only reason it stays, is because money has corrupted the democratic process and congressmen are paid to gatekeep for this absolute failure of a system. Done in part by fear mongering about “socialism” to people who can’t even define socialism. It’s an endless circle of misinformation and corruption that’s ruining systems designed to better society.

    There’s also no “trickle-down” healthcare. Giving a $300 billion tax break to billionaires and hiking premiums is not the solution to such a disaster. Single-payer is. People dying, foreclosing their houses, and going bankrupt do have jobs (given that 78% of filers had health insurance.) We are the only industrialized nation that doesn’t guarantee healthcare to its people because we’re too busy running it like a business. Yes, other countries have higher taxes but that’s nothing more than a soundbite excuse considering a larger amount of ours go towards healthcare for inferior returns. Recall we spend more per capita for this failed system. And the majority of that goes straight to the insurance industry CEO’s pockets. Other countries cut out the middleman, and don’t spend more on healthcare but simply spend their money efficiently. Since when is that socialism? The United States must enact healthcare reform in this model, saving billions while doing it.

    Under single-payer, not only are millions no longer dying because they can’t afford cancer medication, but the citizenry reaps a myriad of economic benefits any fiscal conservative should get behind. We’d all be at townhalls demanding medicare for all already if it hadn’t been smeared by gate keeping corporate shills and their propaganda machines. Single payer saves us trillions, stimulates the economy by helping small businesses and causes salaries to increase – all through a small tax hike. Math is free from passion, so here it goes.

    As mentioned, we currently spend $20 trillion in healthcare costs – $6 trillion of that stemming from insurance costs, and $3.1 trillion in tax subsidies to employers. By eliminating the useless middleman insurance companies are through single-payer, we save $9 trillion total from that annual $20 trillion budget. There’s $11 trillion of costs left to take up that can then be covered by a 6.2% income-based premium from employers, and 2.2% income surtax from households. If we look to Bernie Sander’s plan, families of four making under $28,800 would see no such increase. So yes, taxes would increase for everyone else, but by paying a relatively small amount more in taxes for full-coverage healthcare, we’re all saving the enormous amount of $20 trillion we would otherwise pay. By enacting such a tax increase and eliminating the nonsensical insurance industry from the picture, Americans would save $9 trillion a year they would otherwise spend for premiums that don’t cover a papercut.

    The economic benefits are endless. An average middle-class family of four, making $50,000 a year, would go from paying $5,600 a year for healthcare to $466 under a 2.2% tax hike. Does that sound like socialism? Moreover, those who would normally be covered by employer-sponsored healthcare would see a salary increase because they’d no longer have it deducted from their paycheck.  Small businesses wouldn’t be forced to spend time and money negotiating coverage with insurance companies thus increasing productivity. It’s preventative – saving people from having to go through extended hospital visits and chronic illness treatments. Single payer would also slash costs imposed on hospitals by the industry, to the tune of $400 billion a year. Which is already “enough to cover all the uninsured.

    Furthermore, all the problems under our current system, the shortcomings of the Affordable Care Act, bureaucratic nightmares, disappear. All medically necessary services are covered: doctor, hospital, preventive, emergency, long care, psychological, dental, vision, prescription drugs. People can choose their own provider. Priorities are no longer distorted and better quality of healthcare is provided no matter how much money you make. People would no longer be overtreated because they can pay more.

    In addition, single payer would reduce incentives to over treat and lower drug prices according to the PNHP.

    Healthcare is a human need, not a luxury. It’s utterly despicable and nonsensical for Americans to pay more per capita than any other nation for people to be led to medically induced bankruptcy, 27 million to be uninsured, 30 million underinsured, and to rank 33rd in life expectancy. To pay more and get less because the health insurance industry must butt in the middle of it so billionaires can line their pockets.

    It’s a sad state of affairs when math is a partisan issue, and ideology is more important than what’s best for the country. When in Canada single payer surpasses party lines and conservative prime ministers have made no effort to move in our disastrous direction, yet we can’t have an honest conversation about single payer. When $4 trillion wars aren’t pie in the sky, but properly using our tax system to reduce costs and improve care is. And most of all when the most expensive and cost-ineffective healthcare system in the world is kept around for the benefit of a few multi-billion dollar insurance companies. Healthcare doesn’t trickle down. Single payer is our only saving grace. We must join the rest of the developed world by guaranteeing people healthcare and stop profiting off the sick.